Spain vs Italy prediction, odds and betting tips
Spain and Italy will lock horns in the second UEFA Nations League Finals last-four clash on Thursday.
Best bookies to bet on Spain vs Italy
Here are our best rated football betting sites in the UK:
Spain vs Italy predictions
Spain and Italy tend to save their meetings for when the stakes are at their highest.
This UEFA Nations League semi-final between the pair comes two years on from their clash at the same stage of the European Championship.
A few months after that game, which was won on penalties by the Italians, Spain enacted revenge with victory in the last four of the 2021 Nations League.
They also faced each other in a pair of World Cup qualifiers for the 2018 edition, with Italy’s return of one point from six contributing to their failure to reach Russia.
Meanwhile at Euro 2016 the Azzurri spent Spain packing with a 2-0 triumph which marked the end of the Vicente del Bosque tenure.
The two nations will renew hostilities in the Netherlands on Thursday with a place in the Nations League Finals up for grabs.
Neither side has covered itself in glory since that Euro 2020 semi-final (which was held the following year due to the Covid-19 pandemic).
Spain started World Cup 2022 with a bang, crushing Costa Rica 7-0 on matchday one. But they then drew 1-1 with Germany and lost 2-1 to Japan, before crashing out at the hands of Morocco in the round of 16.
At least they fared better than Italy, who did not even qualify for the World Cup - for the second time on the bounce.
But both teams have silverware in their sights once more as they prepare to lock horns in Enschede.
Spain vs Italy betting tips
Games between these two teams tend to be close and we do not expect this one to be any different.
Italy to qualify - 6/5 (bet365)
Spain are the narrow favourites to come out on top on Thursday, but remember that the match result market includes the 90 minutes only.
With that in mind, we like the look of Italy to qualify at 6/5. That would encompass an Azzurri win in regulation time, in extra time or on penalties.
There is every chance this match goes all the way to spot-kicks. Of the last 16 matches involving Spain and Italy dating back to 1998, half have been drawn after 90 minutes.
The current sides look evenly matched too. Italy might have missed out on the World Cup, but they proved at the Euros in 2021 that they are among the continent’s strongest sides.
Topping a Nations League group ahead of Germany, England and an impressive Hungary outfit was no mean feat either.
There is a healthy blend of youth and experience within the Italian ranks. Giorgio Chiellini is no longer playing at international level, but Leanardo Bonucci, Ciro Immobile, Jorginho and Marco Verratti remain.
They are supplemented by some fresher faces, including Leeds United’s Wilfried Gnonto and Tigres striker Mateo Retegui (more on whom later).
Italy got their Euro 2024 qualification campaign off to a bad start, going down 2-1 at home to England in March.
Nevertheless, Roberto Mancini’s men have what it takes to reach the Nations League final this week - and the value lies in backing them to do so.
Both teams to score - 10/11 (bet365)
Spain are in transition again.
Luis Enrique stepped down after the World Cup disappointment, with the Spanish Football Federation opting for a continuity candidate in Luis de la Fuente.
The 61-year-old knows the national team setup inside out, having spent the last decade in charge of the Under-19s (2013 to 2018) and the Under-21s (2018-2022).
But his lack of experience in managing high-profile, seasoned internationals leaves a question mark over his suitability for the role.
De la Fuente has never managed in La Liga and it remains to be seen whether he will be able to win over players who work under the likes of Pep Guardiola, Diego Simeone and Carlo Ancelotti at club level.
The choice of De la Fuente to succeed Luis Enrique suggests Spain are not planning any sort of stylistic overhaul.
That makes sense given the type of player the country tends to produce, but their new manager must find a way to make the team more incisive - even if that comes at the expense of some possession.
Spain certainly have the attacking quality to cause Italy problems here, while their opponents have failed to score in only one of their last seven outings.
Mateo Retegui to score any time - 12/5 (bet365)
Italy are no strangers to selecting foreign-born players, but Mateo Retegui is unusual in that he has never played in Serie A before.
Born in Argentina, where he has plied his trade at club level since he turned professional, the striker qualifies for the Azzurri through his grandmother.
Mancini called him up for the European Championship qualifiers in March and Retegui made an instant impact, scoring in the games against England and Malta.
In so doing the then-23-year-old became the first Italy international to score in his first two senior appearances since Pierino Prati in 1968.
“He’s the classic centre-forward who scores. He has a strong header. I like how he plays in the box, that’s why I think he’s a good striker,” said none other than Marcello Lippi, the legendary Italian coach.
High praise indeed.
How to watch Manchester City vs Inter
- Location: De Grolsch Veste, Enschede, Netherlands.
- Date and time: Thursday 15 June 2023, 7.45pm.
- How to watch: Viaplay Sports 1.
About the author
Greg Lea
Greg Lea is a freelance football writer from London. He predominantly covers the Premier League and has had work published by the Guardian, FourFourTwo, ESPN and others.
Follow Greg on X:
Commercial content notice: Taking one of the bookmaker offers featured in this article may result in a payment to talkSPORT. 18+. T&Cs apply. Begambleaware.org
Remember to gamble responsibly
A responsible gambler is someone who:
- Establishes time and monetary limits before playing
- Only gambles with money they can afford to lose
- Never chase their losses
- Doesn’t gamble if they’re upset, angry or depressed
- Gamcare –
- GambleAware –
Find our detailed guide on responsible gambling practices here.
For help with a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 or go to to be excluded from all UK-regulated gambling websites.
