2024 UK General Election odds: General Election betting
We are just days away from the UK heading to the polls to determine who is going to occupy Number 10 for the next five years.
The General Election odds have never been more unstable on the betting market.
A seismic shake-up is coming to British politics, with the Tories heading towards a historic wipe-out and parties like Reform and the Lib Dems set to make historic gains in the House of Commons. With less than a week to go until the results are in, take a look at my guide to the 2024 General Election betting odds as I explore how the night might play out.
My selection of UK bookies for General Election betting
Are you ready to put your vote in the ballot box? I know I'm excited. Regardless of which politicians you plan to support, I've highlighted a few bookies that have the best General Election markets. Here they are:
- Betfred
- bet365
- talkSPORT BET
- Sky Bet
- Paddy Power
- SBK
- BoyleSports
- Star Sports
- BetVictor
- BetMGM
- Ladbrokes
- Coral
- 10bet
- Bwin
- BetUK
As always, all the bookies I've picked have a UK Gambling Commission licence and are all the bookies I've tested and use regularly.
UK General Election odds
The following are the most popular markets to bet on at this year’s General Election and how the best UK bookies are currently pricing them up:
Most seats
- Labour - 1/66 (Betfred)
- Reform UK - 80/1 (Paddy Power)
- Conservatives - 100/1 (Betfair)
- Liberal Democrats - 400/1 (Spreadex)
- Green Party - 500/1 (BetMGM)
Government composition
- Labour Majority - 1/20 (Ladbrokes)
- Labour and Lib Dem Coalition - 50/1 (Paddy Power)
- Labour Minority - 50/1 (Betfred)
- Conservative Minority - 66/1 (Betfair)
- Conservative and Reform UK Coalition - 66/1 (BetMGM)
- Conservative Majority - 80/1 (bet365)
Majority
- Labour Majority - 1/25 (Ladbrokes)
- No Overall Majority - 16/1 (Paddy Power)
- Conservative Majority - 28/1 (BoyleSports)
- Reform UK Majority - 66/1 (Coral)
Turnout
- 62.50 - 64.99% - 5/2 (Sky Bet)
- 60.00 - 62.49% - 5/2 (talkSPORT BET)
- 65.00 - 67.49% - 5/1 (BetVictor)
- 57.50 - 59.99% - 11/2 (Betfred)
- 54% or less - 9/1 (Paddy Power)
- 67.50 - 69.99% - 10/1 (Sky Bet)
- 70 - 72.49% - 25/1 (BetVictor)
- 75% or more - 33/1 (Betfair)
When is the UK General Election?
The UK General Election will take place on Thursday, July 4th. Voting stations will be open all over the UK between 7 am and 10 pm. Votes will then be counted throughout the night, with the results of the election being made official at some point on Friday.
Of course, the election results will become clearer longer before that, with the release of the exit polls on Thursday night often being a strong indication of how the vote went.
General Election betting markets
There is much more to betting on an election than just the outcome. Let’s take a look at some of the most popular general election betting markets.
Next government
The most popular market to bet on is how the next government will be formed. It is important to distinguish between this and the party with the most seats. A party can get the most seats but still not make up the numbers required for a majority. To rule with a majority in Britain, a party needs to win 326 seats in an election.
If a party fails to reach 326 seats, then you have a hung parliament. In this situation, a coalition may be formed, as we saw in 2010 when the Tories and Lib Dems partnered up. It is also possible for a party to rule with a minority, though this is unlikely.
Most seats
The most seats market is a simple bet on which party will get the most seats in the election. As I’ve mentioned above, this doesn’t mean that the party will form a majority in the House of Commons.
Over/Under seats
A popular market is how many seats a specific party will get. This is typically presented as an over/under market. For example, you might want to bet on Reform UK getting over or under 10 seats. You can use a betting calculator to figure out how much your potential bet could make.
Many of the bookies will also offer special markets for these, such as ‘Will the Tories get less than 50 seats?’
Vote percentage
Due to the nature of the UK’s first-past-the-post betting system, a party can receive a significant amount of votes from the public, but this does not translate into seats in parliament.
For example, in 2015, UKIP received 12.6% of the vote, but they only had one seat, while the Lib Dems had 7.9% of the vote share but got eight seats. This is because, in theory, a party could finish second in every seat in the country, taking up a lot of the vote share but not winning any seats.
The vote percentage is presented as a range. For example, you might bet on the Conservative party to get 24.25.99% of the vote share.
Voter turnout
Finally, a bet on voter turnout is a bet on the number of people who will vote in the election. Like the vote percentage market, this is presented as a range.
I think this could be one of the most interesting markets to watch this year, with Euro 2024, and the fact many voters think this election is a foregone conclusion no doubt playing a huge part.
The debate seems to be over but there's plenty that could still happen to influence the results. In this overview, my goal is to present all the relevant information so you'd know how to invest your bets and give an insight into who our future officials might be.
Candidate parties for the UK General Elections
If you are a little confused as to who all of the parties are that are involved in the General Election, the following guide will help break it down:
The Conservatives
The Conservative Party, colloquially known as ‘The Tories’ are one of the two major parties in the UK and have been in government since 2010. The party is led by Rishi Sunak, who has been the Prime Minister since October 2022, when he took over from Liz Truss.
The Tories are the most successful political party in British history, and their dominance over the political landscape in the UK has seen them be the biggest party in four consecutive elections: 2010, 2015, 2017, and 2019.
They are a centre-right party whose campaign is focused on ‘sticking to the plan’. Key points have been cutting taxes, creating more jobs, and protecting pensions. Sunak also introduced plans for a controversial national service program during the campaign.
Labour
The Labour Party have been the opposition to the Conservatives for the last 14 years, and they look set to score a majority for the first time since 2005, when Tony Blair beat Michael Howard to secure a third term.
The party is led by Kier Starmer, who took over from Jeremy Corbyn in 2020. Starmer has had a meteoric rise to the top of the party, having become an MP in 2015.
The Labour campaign has been built around the idea of ‘Change’. Key policies include the introduction of Great British Energy, cutting NHS waiting lists, creating a living wage, and the introduction of VAT to private schools.
Reform UK
The return of Nigel Farage to British politics has been one of the biggest talking points of this year’s election. Farage is one of the most divisive figures in the UK, but his return has certainly revitalised a portion of the electorate, with Reform surging in the polls since he announced his comeback.
Reform is a right-wing populist party that was originally conceived in November 2018 as ‘The Brexit Party’. It then rebranded as Reform in November 2021.
Its manifesto has been marketed as ‘A Contract with the People’, and it centres on immigration, cutting crime, scrapping Net Zero, and cutting NHS waiting lists. The party has picked up considerable support on social media, but whether this will translate into votes remains to be seen.
Liberal Democrats
The Liberal Democrats, known as ‘The Lib Dems’ are the third biggest political party in the UK. They are a left-leaning party that is led by Ed Davey, who has been in charge since 2020, when he took over from Jo Swinson.
The party was at its most popular between 2005 and 2010. It won an all-time high 62 seats at the 2005 election under Charles Kennedy and 57 under Nick Clegg in 2010. It would form a coalition with the Tories in 2010, which saw it lose a lot of its core voters thanks to controversial policies, not least of which was the increase in student tuition fees.
After nearly 15 years in the wilderness, the party is back and potentially stronger than ever, with some polls even positioning it as the opposition after this election. Its key policies including rejoining the single market, allowing 16 year olds to vote, reaching net zero by 2045, and scrapping the Rwanda Scheme.
Green Party
The Green Party is the only party on the list to have two leaders, with Carla Denver and Adrian Ramsay sharing the responsibilities heading into the election.
The Greens, who are a far-left political party, will look to fill the space in parliament left by a retiring Caroline Lucas, the party’s only ever MP. The party, as its name suggests, puts a focus on a greener, more environmentally friendly future. Its key policies are improving the NHS, tax rises for higher earners, scrapping tuition fees, and reaching net zero by 2040.
Scottish National Party (SNP)
The SNP is the biggest party in Scotland, and comes into the election in a position of weakness compared to previous years. The party’s leader, John Swinney, only took the role in May 2024, just before the announcement of the election, following a no-confidence vote in former leader Humza Yousaf.
The party secured 48 seats at the last election but will struggle to hold onto this following the rise of Labour across the UK. An immediate ceasefire in Gaza, a transition to a green economy, and Scottish Independence are key policies for the SNP.
Plaid Cymru
Plaid Cymru is a Welsh national party that is also hoping to make some small gains in the election. The party is left-leaning, and is led by Rhun ap Iorwerth, who took over in 2023. Iorwerth has been well received in Wales since taking over from Adam Price and has considerable support throughout Wales.
However, Labour has a stronghold over the country, and it is only likely to make small gains. The party’s key policies include scrapping the Rwanda Plan, rejoining the single market, securing more funding for Wales, and opposing the renewal of Trident. Welsh independence is also a topic that has been discussed, but the party is not focusing on that for the coming campaign.
Other British politics betting opportunities
The political betting scene has really boomed in recent years, and bookies are constantly adding new and interesting markets.
Since Brexit, referendum specials have been a popular choice. Scottish Independence is always a popular market, as is Britain rejoining the EU. There is also an extensive range of future markets available, including things like the next party leaders, the date of the next general election, and so on.
Who would I bet on in the 2024 General Elections?
I think it’s widely accepted by everyone in the country, including the Tories, that the result of the General Election is a foregone conclusion. Labour are going to win a clear majority on the night, and Kier Starmer is going to take over as the first Labour Prime Minister in 14 years. If you're looking for winning candidates for the General Elections betting, then Labour is going to be the winning bet.
As such, the election result market itself offers no value, and I recommend looking at other markets. Total seats for each party offer some value, with the Liberal Democrats and Reform potentially both seeing record seats in the election, but personally, I will be looking more at some of the smaller constituency battles up and down the country for value.
bet365 offers the most comprehensive coverage of this, offering odds for all 650 seats in the election, while Paddy Power is not far behind.
There are some fascinating battles up and down the country. For example, The Wrekin, a seat in Shropshire, has been a Conservative seat since 2005 but looks like it could fall to Labour.
After all the debates, the race to win the elections seems to have a winner and Labour is set to enter the Parliament swinging.
You can currently back Labour to win there at 4/7, while Conservative candidate Mark Pritchard, who is a divisive figure in the area, is at 5/4. Pressure has been amplified on Pritchard since the airing of Channel 4’s Dispatches documentary on Shrewsbury Hospital, which, while not being in his constituency, will definitely impact people within it.
Another example of this is in Romsey and Southampton North, where Conservative Caroline Nokes has been the MP since 2010. The Liberal Democrats are narrowly ahead in the polls, and bet365 has them priced at 4/6 to take the seat, while Nokes and the Tories are at 11/10.
In many of these instances, local issues are likely to play a huge factor, and I would recommend researching similar seats where the sitting candidate is just behind in the polls and the odds. Take a look through the odds provided and note down any ones where the odds are particularly tight. From there, research local issues, polls, and historic voting records.
Another factor in all of this is Tory Shyness. For those who don’t know, this is a phenomenon that always occurs where people don’t want to admit to pollsters that they are voting Conservative. As such, in some of these tight seats, I think there could be some value in backing the sitting Tory MP. Likewise, I suspect that there are some people out there who, despite not wanting to, will hold their nose and back the Tories in the polling booth, as they will feel that Reform is too right-wing as an alternative.
There are also talks about the ‘Portillo Moment’ of this election. Essentially, this is a shock result where a major candidate loses their seat. Of course, Rishi Sunak doing it would be the biggest twist, but I don’t think that will happen. I suspect, in fact, we will see multiple big names fall, with Jeremy Hunt and Jacob Rees Mogg being my two picks.
Finally, I am also keeping an eye on the next Conservative Party Leader market. The number of seats they win on the night and the significant MPs who are not ousted from their seats will play a huge factor in this. Kemi Badenoch at 5/2 with Paddy Power is the current favourite, which I think is good value; I also like Tom Tugendhat at 5/1, with James Cleverly as a more outside shout at 10/1.
All in all, the General Election odds are better than ever and I'm ready to bet. One last thing I'm hoping for is for whoever gets elected in the end to nurture the image of our country and improve everyone's livelihoods.
FAQ about General Elections odds
1. How is Rishi Sunak going to do in the elections?
Rishi Sunak is expected to lead the Conservative Party to its biggest defeat in at least 27 years in the upcoming elections. All the talk is of a super-majority for Labour with party leader Keir Starmer looking set to win as many seats as Tony Blair did in 1997 when he swept to victory with a 179-seat majority. The whopping 418 seats won by Blair remains a Labour Party record.
In the latest 2024 General Election betting, Rishi Sunak’s party is 1/9 to lose 201 or more seats when voters go to the polls on July 4th.
On a personal level, Sunak is 2/9 to hold onto his constituency seat of Richmond and Northallerton. Labour is 5/2 to unseat the sitting Prime Minister. It’s fair to say that Rishi Sunak’s position is very uncomfortable.
2. What is the UK election betting scandal about?
The UK election betting scandal is about people in the know betting on the date of the UK General Election.
It was long reported in the news media that a November UK General Election was the most likely. Plenty of political betting sites had markets offering odds on which quarter of the year the General Election would be held, and the October to December quarter was the clear betting favourite.
People from within Rishi Sunak’s inner circle would have known his plans, and it appears that some of these people may have placed bets on a General Election between July and September.
It is generally regarded as a Conservative Party scandal, but a Labour MP has also been embroiled in a betting scandal, where he is alleged to have bet on himself to lose. The UK Gambling Commission has been heavily involved in the majority of the cases.
3. Who will win the most seats in Scotland?
In the 2024 General Election, the Labour Party are massive betting favourites to win the most seats in Scotland. For years, the SNP has been Scotland’s dominant party in Westminster. In 2015, the SNP won 56 of the 59 Scottish seats, in 2017, the SNP won 35, and in 2019, they won 48 of the 59 seats they contested.
According to the bookmakers, the SNP looks set to lose seats to Labour in 2024. The best political betting sites have Labour at 1/10 to win the most seats, with the SNP at 4/1, and the Conservatives at 100/1. Traditionally, the Tory Party has never done well in Scotland.A theory for the 2024 General Election is that Scottish voters feel they will be better served by a Labour government, than a Tory one. It could be the case that SNP voters are lending their votes to Labour to get rid of the Conservatives, rather than switching allegiances to Keir Starmer's party.
In the spreads markets, the SNP are 4/7 to win less than 19.5 seats and 11/10 to win 20 or more.
4. Are there any historical examples of unexpected upsets in general election odds?
One of the most unexpected upsets in general election results in recent history was John Major’s win over Neil Kinnock in the 1992 UK General Election. In the lead-up to the election, the opinion polls were predicting a hung parliament with Labour as the biggest party or Labour winning a small majority.
The result was a shock to all, not least Neil Kinnock, who resigned his role as leader of the Labour Party shortly after the defeat.
John Major held onto power, winning 326 seats. In this instance, it was a small majority of just ten. But it was a very unexpected majority.
5. What impact do general election odds have on political campaigns?
It’s difficult to know if or how general election betting odds can influence political campaigns.
Strategists trying to help their candidate win a seat in Parliament will probably take their steer from the latest opinion poll results.
The opinion polls would also influence the latest general election odds, rather than the other way around.
6. Which factors influence General Election odds?
One of the biggest factors that influence General Election odds is opinion polls. Although opinion polls only offer a snapshot of what people are thinking, they are generally the best way of gauging which way the majority of voters are planning to vote.
They are not always correct though. In the 2016 US Presidential Elections, the polls said that Hillary Clinton would win, and this led to the bookmakers installing her as a heavy odds-on favourite. That turned out to be incorrect, as Donald Trump ended up winning the vote.
Other factors taken into consideration when setting General Election odds are demographics. Young voters are more likely to vote for Labour, and old voters are more likely to vote for the Tories. The average age of a constituency will influence the odds.
Odds are also influenced in devolved nations such as Wales and Scotland. Local candidates standing for nationalist parties come into the betting, upsetting the odds and causing headaches for the UK-wide main parties looking to form the next government.
What else can you bet on?
- If you're a fan of football and want to know who will win the 2024 Euros, take a look at these Euros predictions.
- Looking for something a little more niche? Bet on England's top scorer.
- Find the best betting apps to place your bets.
About the author
Liam Hoofe
Liam is an experienced iGaming and sports betting journalist based in Cardiff. He has worked in the sports betting industry since 2017 and has provided content for some of the biggest casino and betting brands in the UK. He has also covered football and other sports for both regional and national newspapers.
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