Deontay Wilder’s power can ruin anyone but Anthony Joshua can diffuse the KO bombs that floored Tyson Fury
Anthony Joshua still has the style and the skills to defuse explosives specialist Deontay Wilder – providing he can follow the right gameplan.
Since his two points defeats by Oleksandr Usyk, AJ has looked laboured in beating Jermaine Franklin over 12 rounds or taking seven rounds to stop Robert Helenius – even if the finishing shot was spectacularly violent.
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If the two big-punching heavyweights do meet in a winter showdown, as seems certain, Wilder will go in as the bookies’ favourite. But Joshua has hefty advantages over ‘The Bronze Bomber’ that could, if he uses them, earn him a career-revitalising victory.
The main criticism after both the Franklin and Helenius fights was that the once thrilling, aggressive Joshua has become overly cautious after the setbacks of losing to Usyk and before that Andy Ruiz Jr.
But ‘cautious’ is exactly how any boxer not named Tyson Fury should approach a fight with an opponent as dangerous as Wilder.
One problem AJ has dealt with in front of packed London crowds for his two fights under trainer Derrick James is being caught in two minds. On the one hand, wanting to put on a show as he did during his KO-filled rise – on the other hand, using his immense physical advantages to win without taking undue risks.
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Against Wilder, that process becomes simple. Winning would be impressive enough; there is no real pressure to blow away either supporters or his opponent – just defeating the Alabama banger would be a success.
And Joshua has many of the tools to do exactly that. One highlight of his win against Helenius is that his jab was once again impressive: heavy and accurate, aimed to both head and body.
A stiff jab is boxing 101 in how to disrupt the rhythm of a puncher like Wilder, keeping him at bay and off balance. A complaint about Joshua is that we’ve not seen enough of his hurtful uppercut or mean left hook ever since his shock loss to Ruiz. But shelving those punches and keeping Wilder on the end of a long one-two would actually be an ideal strategy.
Joshua has been called ‘robotic’ by some heavyweight rivals, from Fury to Helenius. But one thing he has going for him against Wilder is that his long, straight, orthodox punches will reach the target in a quicker direct line than Deontay’s wide, looping blows.
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Wilder’s power is exceptional – he is arguably the hardest one-shot puncher boxing has ever seen. But there’s reason to believe that Joshua can at least land first on Wilder, and test his chin before AJ’s own resilience gets examined.
Joshua, while not an elite master boxer like Usyk or a one-off like Fury, is a solid fundamental boxer with heavyweight size and strength. That’s been enough to cause Wilder huge problems in the past.
Even excusing the two defeats to Fury (and one draw most observers believe he lost), Wilder was taken 11 awkward rounds by Johann Duhaupas. He was probably losing both fights against an ageing Luis Ortiz, until his power got him out of trouble.
And now it is Wilder who should be nervously eyeing his birth certificate. The former heavyweight champion turns 38 in October and has boxed just one round – his KO of Helenius – in the two years since his second defeat by Fury.
If Wilder does not take a warm-up bout first, he will face AJ as a ring-rusty fighter, past his physical peak and with question marks over how much those two brutal KO defeats by Fury took out of him.
Joshua, who turns 34 a week before Wilder turns 38, has hardly looked at his best in the 19 rounds he’s boxed this year. But he will be incredibly grateful to have them in the bank if a bout with Wilder does go ahead next.
The worry for AJ is the same as it is for any Wilder opponent: it doesn’t matter how long you outbox him, if you can. He carries that power throughout. “He has to be perfect for the whole fight, I only have to be perfect for one second," as Mr Bomb Squad has correctly said in the past.
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Both Franklin and Helenius left AJ with a bloody nose; he was far from untouchable against either opponent, despite barely losing a round. But Franklin has fast, short, sneaky counter punches – which have always given Joshua trouble – and against Helenius, Joshua was trying to press the action and look for a stoppage, ignoring much of the incoming fire.
The best version of Joshua – the one who got up off the deck to beat a motivated Wladimir Klitschko or even the man who shut out an admittedly overweight Ruiz in their rematch – has a good chance of defeating Wilder. The American is a boxer who can look shockingly amateurish and who, for all his freakish power, is slim for a 6ft 7in heavyweight. (Fury for one had a definite strength advantage over him.)
The question is whether a version of Joshua with that level of self-belief still exists. If Wilder took a physical beating from Fury, AJ appears mentally scarred from his defeats by Usyk.
He looked unwilling at times to step into his punches against Franklin and Helenius. And as Malik Scott, Wilder’s trainer, says: "Deontay is coming to send him to the next dimension, and that is his intention. When he is not punching at you, he is punching through you.”
Critics have used the term ‘gun shy’ to describe the current Joshua: a fighter who’s armour of invincibility has been shattered by being hurt by Klitschko, stopped by Ruiz and outboxed by Usyk. But AJ has only been on the canvas in two of his pro fights (getting up to win one of them).
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Wilder can ruin anybody’s night with those haymakers that don’t always need to land clean to have a devastating, fight-ending impact. That is the minefield Joshua must walk through, so it’s understandable why he’d start the contest as an underdog.
But he is a better pure boxer than Wilder. An Olympic gold medallist with the jab, fitness, perhaps even the caginess to get to Wilder first and cause him major issues. Whether he has the capacity and belief to do it for, possibly, 12 rounds under the lurking threat of Wilder’s power is another question – one that makes this bout between two flawed but talented heavyweights so enthralling.
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