Blue Square Bet Premier & FA Trophy weekend betting preview
This time last year Blue Square were paying out on Newport County as the Blue Square South champions as they swept all before them on their journey to a place in this season’s Blue Square Bet Premier division. The Exiles started this season brightly under Dean Holdsworth as they aimed for back-to-back promotions. With County settled in second position in the table at the halfway stage everything looked bright at Spytty Park under their talented young manager. Heads were being turned though and Holdsworth was tempted to move to Aldershot in December which has led to a huge reversal in form for the South Wales team. A New Year’s Day defeat at home to Bath City started a winless run that was extended to twelve matches at home to Fleetwood last Saturday in a 3-1 reverse. With their title chance over and promotion hopes fading fast Saturday’s home match with Altrincham takes on huge significance. A Newport win is priced at 4/6, which looks incredibly short for a team that haven’t a single league victory to their name in 2011. Opponents Altrincham have won four matches in the same period and are available at 4/1 for three vital points to help ward off their relegation worries.
At the top of the table leaders Crawley Town sit ahead of AFC Wimbledon on goal difference but have five games in hand over The Wombles. Both teams have difficult matches this weekend and feature at exactly the same price. Crawley can be backed at Evens to win at Fleetwood Town and AFC Wimbledon are an identical price for their home match with Kidderminster Harriers. It was the in-form Harriers that held Crawley to a 0-0 draw in midweek which was The Red Devils’ fourth straight goalless league game away from home. Fleetwood are 8/1 to stall Crawley to a fifth away game with no goals. The Cod Army haven’t been very consistent of late and I strongly fancy Crawley to win this match and stay at the summit. Kidderminster are unbeaten in ten matches and I fancy them to get at least a draw on their visit to Kingsmeadow against AFC Wimbledon. An away win at 5/2 looks the best value call though as Steve Burr’s men look to reinforce their play-off position.
Fourth placed Wrexham host play-off outsiders Rushden & Diamonds at the Racecourse Ground on Saturday. The Red Dragons have ten games left in the regular league season to stay in the top five. They start the weekend with an eight point cushion back to sixth place in the table. Away team Rushden have faltered of late and have let odds-on punters down two games running with draws at home to Hayes & Yeading and Forest Green Rovers. This is the Diamonds’ hardest match for some time and I expect a home win here at a price of 4/5
York City are the shortest priced team in the division this weekend as Eastbourne Borough visit Bootham Crescent in a rearranged fixture. The Minstermen look like solid 1/2 shots to win this despite Eastbourne’s improved run. Barrow are 10/3 to record their first away win of the league season at fellow strugglers Forest Green Rovers. Grimsby Town still have enough games in hand to hope for a late run to fifth place and they can extend Kettering’s poor home record with a victory at Rockingham Road at a generous price of 7/5. Southport are hovering above the relegation zone with their weekend visitors Cambridge United. The only bright spots for both teams recently are victories over Histon. I fancy a draw at Haig Avenue at a price of 12/5. Tamworth need a few more wins to ensure their safety for another year and a home fixture with Hayes & Yeading United gives them a good opportunity at a price of 10/11.
The FA Trophy Semi Final first leg matches take place over the weekend and feature four Blue Square Bet Premier teams. That was looking an unlikely prospect as plenty of lower level clubs made it through to the latter stages of the competition at the expense of some more established names. My outright tip for success a few rounds ago was Gateshead, but they have a tough tie with North East neighbours Darlington in their attempt to reach the Wembley final. Mark Cooper’s Quakers are at home in the first leg and can gain the upper hand at 4/5. Blue Square Bet Premier title chasers Luton Town travel to Mansfield Town on Sunday and, although they may rest players for what is clearly their second priority, they should be capable of a draw at Field Mill at a price of 12/5.
ALAN’S BEST WEEKEND TREBLE
KIDDERMINSTER HARRIERS to win at AFC Wimbledon
CRAWLEY TOWN to win at Fleetwood Town
WREXHAM to beat Rushden & Diamonds.
A £10 treble returns just over £125 at the current Blue Square prices.
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