2024 NCAAF National Championship rundown & picks: Michigan vs. Washington
After weeks of criticism surrounding the College Football Playoff Committee, fans were given two of the most thrilling semi-final matchups that could have possibly occurred.
The bar was set high in the opening game as Michigan took down Alabama in overtime 27-20, with Jalen Milroe being stuffed at the goal line on the final play to secure the Crimson Tide’s fate.
This matchup averaged 27.2 million viewers with a peak reaching 32.8 million. This marks the highest peak viewers ever in a college football game and the third-highest average viewers of all time.
he late game also lived up to the hype as Washington took down Texas 37-31. The Longhorns fought hard down the stretch but Michael Penix Jr ultimately led the Huskies to a win.
This sets the stage for a Michigan vs. Washington matchup which will be the ultimate clash of styles and the first time two undefeated teams have faced off in this game.
The line opened up at 4 points in favor of Michigan and shifted to 4.5 shortly after. Michigan has not won a championship since 1997 while Washington last lifted the trophy in 1991.
These two teams have faced off 13 times in their history with Michigan having an 8-5 all-time record in these matchups. Washington is considered to be +160 underdogs on the moneyline with the over/under sitting at 55.5 with these odds based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Here is a look at the best value from a handicapping standpoint and a breakdown of what to expect from each side.
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⚡ Quick tips for Michigan vs. Washington
- Washington +4.5: -110 at BetRivers
- Under 56.5 Point: -110 at BetMGM
- Rome Odunze Over 89.5: -115 at DraftKings
Michigan vs. Washington breakdown
The bar was set high in the opening game as Michigan took down Alabama in overtime 27-20, with Jalen Milroe being stuffed at the goal line on the final play to secure the Crimson Tide’s fate.
This matchup averaged 27.2 million viewers with a peak reaching 32.8 million. This marks the highest peak viewers ever in a college football game and the third-highest average viewers of all time.
The late game also lived up to the hype as Washington took down Texas 37-31. The Longhorns fought hard down the stretch but Michael Penix Jr ultimately led the Huskies to a win.
This sets the stage for a Michigan vs. Washington matchup which will be the ultimate clash of styles and the first time two undefeated teams have faced off in this game. The line opened up at 4 points in favor of Michigan and shifted to 4.5 shortly after.
Michigan has not won a championship since 1997 while Washington last lifted the trophy in 1991. These two teams have faced off 13 times in their history with Michigan having an 8-5 all-time record in these matchups. Washington is considered to be +160 underdogs on the moneyline with the over/under sitting at 55.5 with these odds based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Here is a look at the best value from a handicapping standpoint and a breakdown of what to expect from each side.
- Date and time: Monday, January 8th, 7:30 PM EST
- Location: NRG Stadium (Houston, Texas)
- TV/Stream: ESPN
🏅 National Championship betting tips
With the National Championship on the line and both teams set to give their best effort, here is a look at the best betting angles.
✔️ Washington +4.5 (-110) at BetRivers
Vegas lines and most of the general public have not bought what Washington is selling for most of this season. The Huskies have seemingly been on fraud watch for the entire year yet continued producing wins and proving that they belong.
They entered the college football playoffs with +700 odds which was the longest odds with Texas the next closest at +260. While many believed the winner of the Michigan and Alabama game would ultimately win the championship, and this is certainly still on the table, the 4.5-point spread is more significant than the difference between these two teams.
Most continue to look at Washington as this underdog story when the reality is they have the more talented quarterback and three players that are likely to hear their name called in the first round of the NFL Draft. While containing Michigan’s defensive front will be difficult, if Washington can keep the pocket clean Pennix Jr is capable of picking apart this secondary.
The Wolverines tallied six sacks against Alabama but also were aided by some poor snaps from the Crimson Tide’s center which helped boost these numbers. Hopefully, this type of unforced error is not an issue that the Huskies face and there also are some screen passes and quick throws that are frequent in Washington’s offense already. This is a great way to combat an aggressive pass rush and something Washington will likely lean on in this matchup.
At the minimum, Washington has a chance to win this game. It is no surprise for Michigan to be the favorite, but the 4.5-point spread is too large not to capitalize on. Unless Michigan can get some massive pressure and prevent Michael Penix Jr from going through his reads, Washington will put up points.
They possess a truly elite offense with plenty of ways to attack. With the built-in breathing room for Washington to lose by a field goal or four points, this is worth capitalizing on. Washington is at their best when they are underdogs and have this exact situation in front of them.
Getting a victory and winning the first National Championship since 1991 would be a great exclamation point to the decades of PAC-12 football as the conference dissolves before next season. But with this built-in 4.5-point cushion, Washington is the way to go. You can wager on this at -110 odds on BetRivers Sportsbook.
🏈 Bet on Washington +4.5 at BetRivers 🏈
✔️ Under 56.5 Points (-110) at BetMGM
The pace of scoring in this game will have a major impact on the game script and who will ultimately get the victory. While it is not quite the unstoppable force vs. the immovable object, these are drastically different styles of play with little clarity on which will be more dominant.
Washington is at their best when running-and-gunning and has surpassed 56.5 points in 8 of their 14 games this year with them eclipsing 50 points themselves in three different games. Michigan is much more comfortable playing in slow-paced grind-it-out games and has gone under the 55.5 point margin in 12 of their 14 games this year, including seven straight games to close the season. This number is a high number set for the over/under in Michigan games as they went 8-5-1 in favor of the over throughout the season.
While their numbers aren’t great, Washington’s defense has been better of late and seems to have a knack for coming up in big moments.
They held Quinn Ewers and the Texas offense in check, producing two sacks and two fumbles in the matchup. Edge rusher Bralen Trice is poised to be a first-round pick and has tallied 28.5 sacks in his Washington career including both of the teams sacks last week. Perhaps even more noteworthy is Michigan’s willingness to run the ball and soak up the clock. Throughout the season, the Wolverines offense has continued to lean more on Blake Corum and take the ball out of J.J. McCarthy’s hands more and more.
After attempting 22.9 pass attempts per game through the first nine weeks of the season, McCarthy threw an average of 21.6 pass attempts in the final five weeks. In last week’s game, Corum had 21 touches compared to McCarthy throwing the ball 27 times. Corum’s 25 rushing touchdowns this season led all of college football and he has made it clear he is the driving force of the team’s offense.
Expect Michigan to make an effort to control the tempo of the game early on in this one. Washington is at their best when playing up-tempo and letting their offense play loose and allowing this to happen could cost the Wolverines the game. Michigan will look to control the time of possession and lean on the running game heavily.
While both teams will still do some damage on the scoreboard, 56.5 is a high bar for an over/under for a Michigan game, and don’t expect Washington to get the opportunity to turn this into a shootout.
Expect both teams to remain under 27 points and for this to stay under the 56.5-point combined margin. You can wager on this at BetMGM Sportsbook at -110 odds.
🏈 Pick the under 56.5 points line at BetMGM 🏈
✔️ Rome Odunze Over 89.5 yards (-115) at DraftKings
While Michael Penix Jr deservingly gets the shine for much of the Washington offense’s success, Rome Odunze should be right in the same discussion.
The future first-round pick has tallied 1553 receiving yards on the season along with 13 touchdowns and has an impressive average of 17.9 yards per reception. Standing 6-foot-3 and excellent at the point of attack, Odunze is trusted by Penix Jr to capitalize on balls thrown up for grabs. He also can be used in the screen game if Michigan is having success rushing the quarterback.
Throughout this season, Odunze has cleared 89.5 yards in a game in 10 of the 14 games he has played in this year. He has not had fewer than 64 yards receiving in any game this year and had less than five receptions only once. It also should be noted that he had three catches for 111 yards in the lone game that he did not have five catches.
Odunze also has had over 100 yards receiving in each of the final five games of the season including 125 yards last week against Texas. Also, to give a window into his mentality the 21-year-old took to Twitter/X to joke about the recent mispronunciation of his name. After joking “I think I’ve been saying my own name wrong,” Odunze finished off by saying, “If my name still isn’t pronounced right it just means I haven’t done enough! See you the 8th.”
While he is sure to be at the top of the Michigan scouting report, Rome Odunze is the caliber of talent that you hope to contain and not stop. Marvin Harrison Jr has received most of the NFL Draft hype, but Odunze will not hear his name called far behind and this will be his last game tape put out until this time.
He is the solution to just about every tactic Michigan will look to put in place defensively and Washington is sure to make a strong effort to get the ball in his hands. Expect him to continue his 100-yard streak and clear this 89.5 number on the biggest stage. You can wager on this on DraftKings Sportsbook at -115 odds.
🏈 Bet on Rome Odunze to go over 89.5 yards at DraftKings 🏈
College football betting weekly highlights
- Washington is 5-0 straight up as an underdog in the past 2 years
- Washington is 2-0 ATS and straight up as an underdog this year
- Michigan is 8-5-1 ATS this season
- Michigan is 6-1-1 ATS with Harbaugh coaching
- Washington is 7-6-1 ATS this season
- Michigan is 3-0 ATS as a single-digit favorite this year
- Home teams are 570-339 this year straight up (62.7%)
- Away teams are 339-570 this year straight up (37.3%)
- Home teams are 432-455-22 against the spread this season (48.7%)
- Away teams are 455-432-22 against the spread this season (51.3%)
- Favorites are 438-449-22 against the spread this season (49.4%)
- Underdogs are 449-438-22 against the spread this season (50.6%)
- Home favorites are 285-302-16 against the spread this season (48.6%)
- Away favorites are 153-147-6 against the spread this season (51.0%)
- Home underdogs are 147-153-6 against the spread this season (49.0%)
- Overs are 459-434 on the season (51.4%)
🏈 Best college football betting sites
- BetMGM (Available in: AZ, CO, FL, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, MD, MA, MI, MS, NV, NJ, NY, OH, OR, PA, PR, TN, VA, WA, WV, and WY)
- DraftKings (Available in: AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KY, LA, MD, MA, MI, NH, NJ, NY, OH, OR, PA, TN, VA, and WV)
- BetRivers (Available in: AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, LA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, VA, WV, and WY)
- Desert Diamond (Available in: AZ)
- Betway (Available in: IA)
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About the author
Sean Barnard
Sean Barnard has worked in sports media for the past five years. He has spent time as the 76ers Lead Writer for Philly Sports Network, Associate Editor at CluchPoints, Eagles Beat Reporter for YardBarker, and more. He also owns and operates his own Podcast Network called Pick Swap Media and is a radio host on Fox 102.5 The Gambler presented by iHeartMedia. Sean has written over 1500 articles and recorded over 500 podcasts and is just getting started. Based out of the Philadelphia region in the United States, Sean is a lifelong passionate sports fan who can be where he rattles off basketball breakdowns and other news.
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