Iowa State vs Illinois betting odds, predictions, pick and promos
The field is narrowing down as just 16 teams remain in the NCAA Tournament. 2nd-seeded Iowa State is set to face off with 3rd-seeded Illinois with both teams flying more under the radar than they have deserved based on their success this season.
The winner is likely to face off against title-favorite Connecticut following this game unless an upset occurs. This matchup will take place at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts.
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Iowa State (2) vs Illinois (3) preview
Iowa State went 27-7 in the regular season and 13-5 in Big 12 play during the regular season. They have outscored opponents by 513 total points which amounts to 14.2 points per game on average. Led by T.J. Otzelberger, they are a defensive-minded team that has limited opponents to the 4th-fewest points per game in college basketball this year and ranks 2nd in defensive rating. The Cyclones have held their opponents to under 50 points in a game seven times this season and are undefeated in these matchups. They have paved their path to this stage of the tournament by securing victories over South Dakota State and Washington State, with Illinois set to be their toughest test of the tournament thus far.
As a team, Iowa State forces the second-most steals and has the 36th-most assists on the offensive end. They also limit opponents to the 78th-fewest rebounds, the 12th-worst field goal percentage, and the 56th-worst three-point percentage. On the offensive end, they do most of their damage inside the arc as Iowa State ranks 305th in the country in three-point attempts per game. The Cyclones produce 75.5 points per game which is the 114th-best rate but are 68th in offensive efficiency. They also have had the 44th-most difficult schedule in all of college basketball.
Iowa State finished the season as the 6th-best team in the Net Rankings. They played just 11 games against Quad 3 and 4 opponents, going 11-0 in these matchups. The Cyclones also were 6-1 in Quad 2 matchups, and 10-6 when facing Quad 1 teams. Their most impressive victories were over Houston, Baylor, Kansas, and Texas with their lone Quad 2 loss coming against Virginia Tech. One interesting statistical difference to note as Iowa State has averaged 80.7 points per game at home but just 69.6 per game on the road this season which is a significant difference. They also have averaged just 68.5 points over their last 10 games compared to the 75.5 they produced over the year.
Illinois has had one of the most impressive starts to the NCAA Tournament thus far as they have cruised past Morehead State and Duquesne in the opening two rounds by a combined margin of 42 points. They ultimately went 26-8 in the regular season and 14-6 in Big Ten play. They are an impressive offensive team, averaging 84.6 points per game which is 9th in the country. The Fighting Illini also ranks 7th in the country in rebounding, 5th in offensive rating, gets to the free-throw line at the 27th-best rate, and shoots 47.6% from the field which is the 32nd-best rate.
Headlining this matchup will be likely future NBA lottery pick Terrence Shannon Jr. The 6-foot-7 guard imposes himself physically and has averaged 23.3 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game this season. He has impressed thus far in the tournament, tallying 26 points in the opening round and 30 against Duquesne. Marcus Domask and Coleman Hawkins each also averaged 12.3 points per game or more and provided the necessary secondary scoring.
Overall, Illinois finished the season as the 13th-ranked team in the NET Rankings and faced the 35th most difficult strength of schedule. They had an impressive 20-2 combined record against Quad 2,3, and 4 opponents while going 8-6 in Quad 1 matchups. Their most impressive victories were over FAU, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin twice. Some of their morse concerning losses came at the hands of Maryland, Penn State, and Marquette. The Fighting Illini will be looking to ride the momentum they have built against an opponent which may very well be their toughest matchup of the year. They surprisingly have been an even better scoring team on the road this season, averaging 83.4 points per game on the road and 82.4 per game at home. Illinois also has played their best basketball of late averaging 87.7 points per game.
Iowa State vs Illinois odds
Below are the odds for this matchup, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Spread: Iowa State -2.5 at -110 odds, Illinois +2.5 at -110 odds
- Moneyline: Iowa State -142, Illinois +120
- Total: Over/Under 146 points
Iowa State vs Illinois analysis
This will be an interesting clash of styles as Iowa State will look to slow the pace and impose themselves defensively. The Cyclones have done an excellent job ensuring this is the case on a game-by-game basis and are a difficult team to gameplan for. Iowa State has a well-rounded offensive attack with four players averaging in double-figures. Keshon Golbert will be the most notable name on the scouting report as he has averaged 13.7 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 1.9 steals this season. Curtis Jones also has emerged as a name to watch off the bench and he has scored in double figures in each tournament game thus far.
One factor coming against Iowa State is that Illinois will have the most talented basketball player on the floor. Terrence Shannon Jr continues to elevate his draft stock and there are very few players better than him across the entire tournament. Perhaps even more impressive than his level of talent is the motor that he plays with. The energy that Shannon Jr brings on both sides of the ball sets the tone for this team and is infectious to his teammates. Illinois has played with a different level of energy throughout the second half of the season and will not be intimidated by anyone. In their last 10 games, they are 9-1 with their only loss coming to Purdue.
With Iowa State lacking commitment from beyond the three-point arc, as evidenced by the Cyclones ranking 305th in three-point attempts, it could be an issue if they fall behind early. Expect the first few minutes of this game to play a major factor in which team ultimately gets the win. If Illinois jumps out to an early lead it will be difficult for Iowa State to battle back, but if Iowa State imposes themselves defensively it will be a difficult hole to dig out of for Illinois.
Iowa State vs Illinois pick
Ultimately, this is a case of one team playing their best basketball at the right time while another is showing some signs of struggle. While Iowa State has not been punished for this yet, Illinois will not allow them to produce a win with the quality of games they have put forth of late. Expect Terrence Shannon Jr to impose himself early on and for his rim pressure to cause issues for the Cyclones. Shannon Jr looks to be on a mission and possesses the level of talent that can lead Illinois on a deep run. The supporting cast is better than they have been given credit as the Fighting Illini should be in the conversation of true contenders to win the entire tournament.
Count on Shannon Jr’s offensive ability to be too much and for Iowa State to be unable to have the necessary production to answer. His length, athleticism, and motor are too much of an X-factor to overlook so count on the upset occurring.
🏀 Bet on Illinois moneyline at +120 odds with DraftKings 🏀
Iowa State vs Illinois game info
- Who: Iowa State (2) vs Illinois (3)
- Date: Thursday, March 28th
- Time: TBD
- Venue: TD Garden (Boston, Massachusetts)
- Where to watch: TBD
About the author
Sean Barnard
Sean Barnard has worked in sports media for the past five years. He has spent time as the 76ers Lead Writer for Philly Sports Network, Associate Editor at CluchPoints, Eagles Beat Reporter for YardBarker, and more. He also owns and operates his own Podcast Network called Pick Swap Media and is a radio host on Fox 102.5 The Gambler presented by iHeartMedia. Sean has written over 1500 articles and recorded over 500 podcasts and is just getting started. Based out of the Philadelphia region in the United States, Sean is a lifelong passionate sports fan who can be where he rattles off basketball breakdowns and other news.
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